"The practical policy issue of “conflict prevention” and the attendant need for “early warning” to promote peace and security is a relatively recent addition to policy planning and research ....There are two crucial questions that arise when the issue of identifying “early warning” indicators is posed. First is the question regarding the specific condition or situation for which we require early warning indicators (i.e., “of what”) and second is the question regarding “how early.”" (Quoted from paper)