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Agenda
The Chinese government pledged a 40-45 percent reduction in national carbon intensity from 2005 levels by 2020. To achieve this 2020 target, the 12th Fifth Year Plan sets an interim target of reducing carbon intensity 17 percent from 2010 levels by 2015. Many studies have found that this target will be challenging for China to achieve without additional, aggressive policies to promote low carbon energy development.
Status
China is the world's largest CO2 emitter and produces around a quarter of global carbon emissions. The enforcement of laws and regulations remains weak.
China has ratified both the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Kyoto Protocol. As a non-Annex 1(developing) country, China has no binding emission limits under the first commitment period (2008-2012) of the Protocol. However, China is an active participant in the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) established under the Protocol.
The “12th Five-Year Plan” is the most “green” of the Five-Year Plans, indicating a major transformation in China’s development mode, and marking China’s entry into a “green development era” along the road of “ecological civilization”. It will also be an important contribution to sustainable development of the world as well as a response to global climate change.
Challenges
Costs China leads the world in energy consumption, carbon emissions and the release of major air and water pollutants, and the environmental impact is felt both regionally and globally. China could experience substantial GDP losses by the end of the century under the most stringent policy cases. These losses come from higher energy prices, which influence consumption and export dynamics.
Natural Disasters The China Council for International Cooperation on Environment and Development voices its concern over the frequent natural disasters that have plagued China this year, such as droughts, floods, landslides, typhoons and earthquakes. They have exposed the fragility of the country’s ecosystems and the desperate need for enhanced eco-services. In the future, climate change will place even more pressure on already overworked ecosystems.
Food Shortages Rice production in the river basin will decrease 9-41% by the end of the 21st century, while corn and winter wheat production will decline more rapidly. The headwaters of the Yangtze are dominated by grasslands, which have degraded considerably over the last 30 years. it is estimated that in alpine meadows, climate change has contributed 81% to ecosystem degradation, and human activities 18%.
Water Under one scenario of how global warming will affect water availability, by 2050 eight of mainland China's 31 provinces and provincial-status cities could face severe water shortages -- meaning less than 500 cubic meters per resident -- and another 10 could face less dire chronic shortages.
The future warmer climate will accelerate the melting of the glaciers and permafrost in the headwaters region of the Yangtze River, especially on the Tibetan Plateau. The glacial area will decrease 11.6% by 2060 in comparison with that in 1970, while runoff will increase 28.5% during the same period. Wetland areas have also declined rapidly over the past few decades due to human activity and climate change.
Public Perception For years, people in China have accepted murky air, tainted waters and scarred landscapes as the unavoidable price of the country’s meteoric economic growth. But public dissent over environmental issues has been growing steadily in the communist nation, and now seems to be building the foundations of a fledgling green movement.
The story of responsibility for climate change and for environmental issues that emerges from surveys and interviews is one of the Chinese state, its corporations, factories, and citizens. The narrative given by citizens is: corporations are the source of the pollution (including greenhouse gases), citizens suffer from the pollution, and it is the role of the government to stop the corporations from polluting.
Possibilities
International Influence As the fastest growing economy in the world, China could account for half of the world's CO2 emissions by 2030, according to the House of Commons Energy and Climate Change Committee (ECCC). However China has recently set out ambitious plans to reduce the carbon intensity of its economy, boost green energy, draft a new climate law and introduce a carbon trading system.
Governmental Intervention India and China have successfully brought together a disparate group of developing countries to take on the EU and its new-found friends — small and least developed countries. The new formation, called the 'Like Minded Developing Countries on Climate Change', came out with a strong statement backing India's demand for integrating equity and the principle of common but differentiated responsibility into any new regime.
Clean Tech Industry Chinese clean technology enterprises are beginning to assume powerful positions in the global marketplace, particularly in wind, solar and new energy vehicles. The Chinese government may also grow more serious about capping national energy consumption and national coal production.
Key Policies
Carbon Trading According to an implementation plan for Beijing's pilot carbon emission-trading program covering the period from 2012 to 2015, more than 600 companies with direct and in direct carbon emission exceeding 10,000 tons per year will be included on a mandatory list for capping emissions.
The National Development and Reform Commission announced early this year it would launch carbon-trading systems next year in five cities - Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, Shenzhen and Chongqing, as well as in Guangdong and Hubei provinces. It plans to make the program national by 2015. This will help China reach their goal of reducing carbon intensity by 40 percent relative to 2005 and increasing the share of non-fossil fuels by 15 percent by 2020.
Key Figures
CO2 Emissions From 2002 to 2008, China’s CO2 emissions rose from 2.9 to 5.3 metric tons per capita.
Most Vulnerable Places Research from a team of British and Dutch scientists claimed Shanghai was the most susceptible to severe flooding of nine major global cities. And, the Asia Development Bank (ADB) urged the continent’s rapidly growing metropolises to go green or “face a bleak and environmentally degraded future”.
Three main industrial centers of China are on lowland areas: the Gulf of Bohai region with the Beijing-Tianjin axis, the Yangtze River delta radiating inland from Shanghai, and the Pearl River delta encompassing Hong Kong and Guangzhou. A sea level rise of a meter would inundate 92,000km2 of land in these three regions.
Transition to Globalisation
China Challenges Europe's Climate Change Leadership The authors give reasons why they believe that China challenges Europe's climate change leadership. Moreover the authors reveal the problems in the EU and China's climate change relation and render suggestions for what the EU can do in the future. Globalisation » Environment » Natural Resources » Climate
Transition to Political Tools
Achieving Sustainable Development in an Age of Climate Change Adapting to climate change is critical for sustainable development. Steps must be taken to strengthen the adaptive capacity of all stakeholders and to mainstream adaptation into sectoral and national planning processes. Achieving the aims reflected in the international sustainable development agenda also requires mitigation efforts in accordance with the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities
Transition to Political Actors
Climate Change and Population Continuous population growth, fuelled by an expected increase of 2.3 billion people on the planet by 2050, is multiplying the impacts of climate change and will be ecologically unsustainable Actors » Sector » Civil Society » NGOs » Environment
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